Handicapping Secrets of The Horse Racing Fanatic by Easton Gordon

Author:Easton, Gordon [Easton, Gordon]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Pack River Publishing
Published: 2011-08-28T16:00:00+00:00

An Introduction to the Beyer Speed Ratings

Because of the confusion caused by Track Variances , Pace , Different Distances , etc. The Beyer Speed Figures were introduced. (You will hear these also called Beyer Numbers .) Andrew Beyer & Associates Speed Figures are described in a full page in most editions of the Daily Racing Form. To sum them up… they are numbers that are similar to Speed Ratings with several important exceptions. They are supposed to be interchangeable from track to track. In other words… a Speed figure of 95 earned at Bandera Downs should be equivalent to a 95 earned at Santa Anita. Are they really? We shall discuss this later. They are supposed to be interchangeable from distance to distance. In other words… a 95 earned at 5-furlongss should be equivalent to a 95 earned at 1½ miles. However, Beyer does warn you that some horses excel at certain distances. Hence, if a horse earns a 95 at 6-furlongs, you cannot assume that it will duplicate that effort at 1½ miles. Before you make such predictions, you need to look at a horse’s breeding, running style, past performance, etc. They are supposed to take into consideration Track Variance. So ideally, these numbers can be used to compare horses that have raced at different tracks, different distances, and at different type racing conditions (mud, fast, etc.) An extreme example would be a horse that earns a 90 at 6-furlongs on a muddy track at Delta Downs has run an equivalent race to a horse that earns a 90 on a fast track, at 1 1/16 miles… at Santa Anita. This is the ideal that they “shoot for.”

One weakness that becomes apparent when you study these numbers is that they don’t often reflect the class of the race in which the number was earned. A horse that wins an easy race by a wide margin, beating a soft field will often get a very high number. I can recall one example where a horse won a soft race and earned a higher number than one that had come in second In a major stakes race. So the first lesson to be learned is that not all Beyer numbers are absolutely sound. Class must also be considered when looking at Beyer numbers… more detail on this later. How likely is a horse to repeat the same Beyer Number in its next race? If a horse ran an 88 in its last race… will it run an 88 today? Less than 10% of the time will a horse duplicate its last Beyer number; However, approximately half of the time (on the dirt) a horse will run within a few points of its previous number. That is, it will run anywhere between 5 points less than… to 5 points more than… the last Beyer number. So, if a horse ran 88 in its last race, it will run 83–93 in its next race… at least half of the time.

What are some of the factors that will cause this number to vary from race to race?

Change in weight.

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